The commercial market in the Northern Hills of western South Dakota has been notably consistent in sales activity over the past three completed years, with 98 closings in 2023, 101 in 2024, and 99 in 2025. Pricing over that stretch has moved steadily upward. Median sale price climbed from $450,006 in 2023 to $500,000 in 2024 and $535,000 in 2025, gains of 8%, 11%, and 7% respectively, which works out to a median annual appreciation rate of about 7% per year across the last four years. Average sale price has bounced around more, largely because a handful of large transactions can swing it in either direction. It rose 32% in 2023, gave back 8% in 2024, then rebounded 23% to $894,542 in 2025.
Total dollar volume followed a similar path, easing from $76.8 million in 2023 to $68.8 million in 2024 before reaching a four year high of $86.8 million in 2025. Marketing periods have been the least predictable measure. Median days on market ran 41 days in 2023, jumped to 100 days in 2024, and settled back to 45 days in 2025, while average days on market improved steadily from 210 to 184 days. List to sale price differentials have held in the 10% to 13% range throughout, which tells us buyers are consistently negotiating below asking. Through the partial 2026 year, 57 sales totaling $28.5 million have closed at an average of $633,740 and a median of $450,000, down 29% and 16% from the prior year, with median days on market at 79 and average days on market stretching out to 163. Those declines deserve some caution.
The year is incomplete, the smaller sample is more sensitive to which properties happened to sell. Taken as a whole, the Northern Hills commercial market shows significantly lower transaction volume in 2026, which is a cause for concern. Longer marketing times are standing out as a sign of softening. However, for the latest updates and trends in 2026, please contact Ferguson Appraisals LLC.
For other sources of Black Hills market trends, please see KW Commercial in Rapid City.